Increased heat requirement for leaf flushing in temperate woody species over 1980–2012: effects of chilling,precipitation and insolation

Recent studies have revealed large unexplained variation in heat requirement‐based phenology models, resulting in large uncertainty when predicting ecosystem carbon and water balance responses to climate variability. Improving our understanding of the heat requirement for spring phenology is thus urgently needed. In this study, we estimated the species‐specific heat requirement for leaf flushing of 13 temperate woody species using long‐term phenological observations from Europe and North America. The species were defined as early and late flushing species according to the mean date of leaf flushing across all sites. Partial correlation analyses were applied to determine the temporal correlations between heat requirement and chilling accumulation, precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. We found that the heat requirement for leaf flushing increased by almost 50% over the study period 1980–2012, with an average of 30 heat units per decade. This temporal increase in heat requirement was observed in all species, but was much larger for late than for early flushing species. Consistent with previous studies, we found that the heat requirement negatively correlates with chilling accumulation. Interestingly, after removing the variation induced by chilling accumulation, a predominantly positive partial correlation exists between heat requirement and precipitation sum, and a predominantly negative correlation between heat requirement and insolation sum. This suggests that besides the well‐known effect of chilling, the heat requirement for leaf flushing is also influenced by precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. However, we hypothesize that the observed precipitation and insolation effects might be artefacts attributable to the inappropriate use of air temperature in the heat requirement quantification. Rather than air temperature, meristem temperature is probably the prominent driver of the leaf flushing process, but these data are not available. Further experimental research is thus needed to verify whether insolation and precipitation sums directly affect the heat requirement for leaf flushing.     

The risk‐return trade‐off between solitary and eusocial reproduction

Social insect colonies can be seen as a distinct form of biological organisation because they function as superorganisms. Understanding how natural selection acts on the emergence and maintenance of these colonies remains a major question in evolutionary biology and ecology. Here, we explore this by using multi‐type branching processes to calculate the basic reproductive ratios and the extinction probabilities for solitary vs. eusocial reproductive strategies. We find that eusociality, albeit being hugely successful once established, is generally less stable than solitary reproduction unless large demographic advantages of eusociality arise for small colony sizes. We also demonstrate how such demographic constraints can be overcome by the presence of ecological niches that strongly favour eusociality. Our results characterise the risk‐return trade‐offs between solitary and eusocial reproduction, and help to explain why eusociality is taxonomically rare: eusociality is a high‐risk, high‐reward strategy, whereas solitary reproduction is more conservative.